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and we’ll get much better at delivering the right experience (which for mobiles will be very app-like) at the right time for the right person tailored for the device.

For 2011 I expect to see this starting to happen mostly in the form of the growth in m-commerce and mobile search and companies creating mobile-optimised app-like, but web, experiences. Have a read of Mobile commerce: ten reasons to choose the web over apps and the reviews of the mobile sites of Marks & Spencer,  Rightmove, Autotrader etc.

Obviously there will be all sorts of developments in the mobile device and OS space with Google, Apple, Nokia, Microsoft etc. all fighting it out. And tablet computing will also grow hugely spurred by the iPad but fast joined by Samsung, Dell and everyone else.

2011 is likely to be the year that e-readers finally become much more mainstream after years of somewhat faltering advances. This is of particular importance to the book publishing world, of course.

However, the big battle I’m fascinated to see play out in 2011 in this space is Google vs. Amazon given Google Books – when I do a search, for example, on the aforementioned “Game-based Marketing” book by Gabe zichermann I get Google Books come up as first result with Amazon ranking only third. That’s got to get the folks at Amazon wondering about their no-doubt-enormous PPC spend with Google?

16. Localisation – finds its place in marketing

Again, there is lots to be excited about in localisation for 2011. Foursquare, and the concept of ‘checking in’ to a location, made waves in 2010 as did Facebook with the announcement of Facebook Places, Twitter with its location support and so on.

However, there are two main things that interest me in terms of localisation.

One is what I call the . This is essentially about IP-enabling physical objects. Suddenly things have a web life. They are on the grid. Have a look at EVRYTHNG for example. I doubt this will be big in 2011 but it will become big and not just for the obvious B2B applications like logistics. Think of the acclaimed Jimmy Choo Trainer Hunt campaign using Foursquare to hunt down a pair of physical trainers and what might be possible with the ‘internet of things’ to come… some fascinating joined up online/offline marketing opportunities here.

But my main feeling about localisation is that this is an area which Google looks set to focus big firepower on and I don’t see anyone else with much hope of competing. I’ve long predicted Google would bring about the demise of directory businesses (like Yell, Thomson etc.), but I’m not sure things look good long term for the likes of Yelp (and other user review sites, even the mighty TripAdvisor), and, dare I say it, Groupon (and other sites offering increasingly localised deals, offers, coupons).

We know that Google is massively investing in mobile and we know that Google know more than anyone about search trends on mobile devices (though they’re not telling us all the juicy detail). A large proportion of mobile search is ‘local’ in nature.

We also know Google is looking at pushing search results to users based on their location (on their phones presumably); we know that Google Places is ramping up considerably; we know Google has also launched Hotpot, a platform where Google users can rate and review local services and these reviews and ratings then feed into Google Places, Google’s business listings that appear on Google Maps.

But what is most interesting is how Google appears to be now using its dominant search position, and the real estate on the search results pages, to skyrocket its dominance in ‘local’. You’ve probably noticed how much space is taken up by local listings at the top of natural search results? You’ve probably also noticed the prominence Google is giving to reviews in its natural search results? You may have noticed how Google Maps’ interface is changing subtly e.g. when you now print off a map the local listings ads are now included at the top of the printed page whether you want them or not?

I think it won’t be long before, for many businesses, particularly ‘local’ smaller ones, their Google Business Listing *will be their website*. They’ll use biddable media of all forms (search, display, maps, pay per call etc.) to drive traffic to their Google Pages where there will also be coupon/offer mechanisms offered by Google, that can of course be sent to, and redeemed on, your (Google / Android) phone.

I think the above will happen much more quickly than people realise, indeed this year. Only a few weeks ago TripAdvisor confirmed that it blocks Google Places from sourcing its hotel reviews, saying it doesn’t think Google Places “benefits users at this time with the experience of selecting the right hotel”. Mmm…. I wonder why.

Convergence, WebTV, IPTV… it has been talked about for years. Indeed, internet-enabled TV has been around for years. But what is now much interesting is the potential of *web*-enabled TV. Specifically, an era which promises to make the TV device and the fabled ‘living room’ a platform open to all and based on standards. So no longer such an expensive, and controlled, medium, but an “open” channel more like the web.

I predict 2011 will mostly see lots of talk on the subject, and lots of commercial and technical wrangling around standards and agreements, and it won’t be until 2012 that things really start to happen. And no coincidence that 2012 is the year of the Olympics. You can be sure that YouView, in the UK, will want to be absolutely certain that the 2012 Olympics are first the ‘Connected TV’ Olympics and there are plenty of brands who will be just as keen to jump on that bandwagon.

The big complication with connected TV will remain how differently it works across countries, or areas, globally. The UK and much of mainland Europe already appear to have diverged in the standards and technologies they are backing, for example.

While the initial take up and focus of connected TV is likely to be “catch up TV” via an iPlayer-esque interface there are lots of other areas of interest to watch and think about in 2011, for example:

T(elevision)-commerce? Tesco have already signalled their commitment to bringing their digital shopping experience to TVs.
EPG vs. Search interfaces? The likes of YouView are committed to a way of finding programs via a browseable ‘electronic programming guide (EPG)’ which brings up all sorts of intriguing debates around who should ‘rank’ where (which Sky have been making money out of for years); Google TV, not surprisingly, backs a search-based interface. Which will win out?
The technical approval process. YouView promises to be open to anyone. So, for example, we at Econsultancy quite fancy putting videos of our events on TV for delegates, or those who missed the event, to watch. And, indeed, the TV should become a big opportunity for millions of other small companies. But how will the technical approval process work? How painful and onerous and slow might it be given some peoples’ experiences of Apple’s App Store approval process?

That’s more than enough for now! What do you think?

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