Expected Pullback after Monday Gap Open

Written by admin on April 19th, 2011

When markets gap around they get natural retracements creating volatility and if you look at a simple 5 day chart you can spot likely retracements. An example is yesterdays gap higher and todays pullback which will likely test the area it gapped from. News becomes irrelevant and pricing takes over as valuation becomes a confusing exercise making it best to trudge through the summer and its earnings quarter.

Consumer products giant Procter & Gamble Co. and chemical maker Dow Chemical Co. both reported profit and revenue that fell short of forecasts. Those disappointments offset better-than-expected results from pharmaceutical company Pfizer Inc.
A report that showed personal income and spending was flat in June also tempered the market’s mood. The Commerce Department said personal income and spending were both unchanged in June after rising 0.3 percent and 0.1 percent respectively in May. The readings were also short of forecasts for a 0.2 percent gain in income and 0.1 percent growth in spending predicted by economists polled by Thomson Reuters.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 35 points in morning trading. Broader indexes were also moderately lower.
The weak numbers follow a trend of economic reports that point to a slowdown in economic growth. Reports are due out later in the day on factory orders and pending home sales that are expected to also provide additional evidence of a mixed economy.
The economic and earnings reports took some luster off a market that rallied sharply Monday in the first day of trading in August. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 208 points Monday after a report on July manufacturing showed growth in the sector slowed modestly, but not as fast as economists had expected. It was the best start to August trading since 1934.
Earnings had largely topped forecasts in the past few weeks and companies were mostly upbeat about future growth. However, Tuesday’s results provided a rare slice of disappointment with two major companies falling short of analysts’ predictions.
Stocks fell immediately at the open after the earnings reports followed a similar pattern that has been seen throughout the past couple of months. Trading has been erratic as investors receive conflicting signs about the pace of recovery. That has led to sharp swings higher and lower as investors focus on the latest piece of news to try and determine if or when the recovery will accelerate.
In morning trading, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 35.20, or 0.3 percent, to 10,639.18. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index fell 5.18, or 0.5 percent, to 1,120.68, while the Nasdaq composite index fell 12.55, or 0.6 percent, to 2,282.81.
About two stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange where volume came to 74.9 million shares.
Shares of Procter & Gamble, the maker of Tide and Pampers, fell .01, or 3.2 percent, to .05. Dow Chemical dropped .19, or 7.8 percent, to .14. Pfizer rose 70 cents, or 4.6 percent, to .18.
Investors particularly want to see revenue beat expectations because that eases concerns that the economy is slowing down. Companies also need to show revenue growth because analysts say that will be the primary driver of earnings growth in future quarters. Economic reports have largely pointed to a slowdown in growth during the second half of the year, which could further impact corporate earnings.
Factory orders likely fell in June, but not by as much as in May. Economists expect factory orders dropped 0.5 percent in May. The results come a day after a broader manufacturing survey showed expansion in the sector in July.
Also, the National Association of Realtors is expected to report the number of people who signed contracts to purchase homes inched higher in June, but remains at very weak levels. The group’s index of pending home sales likely rose to 78.1 from 77.6 in May.
Like consumer spending, the housing market is also considered a key component for the recovery. A collapse in the market helped push the country into recession and after a home buyer tax credit expired at the end of April, sales have again plummeted. Signs of growth aren’t expected. Instead more modest indicators like stabilization would likely be welcomed in the market.
Many housing reports indicated sales dropped to near record low levels just after the expiration of the tax credit.
With investors taking a more cautious approach to trading Tuesday, bond prices rose. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 2.93 percent from 2.97 percent late Monday.
Overseas, Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.5 percent, Germany’s DAX index fell less than 0.1 percent, and France’s CAC-40 fell 0.6 percent. Japan’s Nikkei stock average rose 1.3 percent.


For more information visit http://www.worldmarketmedia.com/779/section.aspx/2159/post/expected-pullback-after-monday-gap-open

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