Financial Resource

FINANCIAL MODELING

 

Financial modeling is a process of forecasting performance of a certain asset, using relationships among operating, investing, and financing variables. The central aim of all financial modeling is valuation under uncertainty: how to estimate the value of a security when its future trajectory, or the trajectory of the other securities or economic variables it depends on, is unknown. Usually, financial modeling requires a great deal of spreadsheet work.

 

 

Financial Modeling Application

 

ü       Business valuation, especially discounted cash flow

ü       Cost of capital or WACC

ü       Modeling the term structure of interest rate and credit spread

ü       Option pricing

ü       Real options

ü       Risk modeling

ü       Portfolio problems

 

 

Standard and Premise of Business Value

 

Before the value of a business can be measured, the valuation assignment must specify the reason for and circumstances surrounding the business valuation. These are formally known as the business value    standard and premise of value.

 

Business valuation results can vary considerably depending upon the choice of both the standard and premise of value. For example, a business buyer and seller may bargain to establish the value of business assets that approaches the fair market value standard.

 

However, the value conclusions based on the going concern premise and that of assemblage of business assets may be quite different. One reason is that an operating business creates value by means of its ability to coordinate its capital, human and management resources to produce economic income. The same set of assets not currently used to produce income is generally worth less.

 

Reasons for Business Valuation

 

Business people may need to conduct business valuation for a number of reasons including sale, estate tax planning, estate tax valuation, divorce, business purchase price allocation, collateral documentation, litigation and documenting that a sales price is equitable.

 

Fair market value

 

“Fair market value”, a central standard of measuring business value, is defined as the price at which property would change hands between a willing buyer and a willing seller when the former is not under any compulsion to buy and the latter is not under any compulsion to sell, both parties having reasonable knowledge of relevant facts. See IRS Rev. Rul. 59-60, 1959-1, Cum. Bulletin 237, codified at 26 C.F.R. § 20.2031-1(b).

 

The fair market value standard incorporates certain assumptions, including the assumptions that the hypothetical purchaser is reasonably prudent and rational but is not motivated by any synergistic or strategic influences; that the business will continue as a going concern and not be liquidated; that the hypothetical transaction will be conducted in cash or equivalents; and that the parties are willing and able to consummate the transaction.

 

These assumptions might not, and probably do not, reflect the actual conditions of the market in which the subject business might be sold. However, these conditions are assumed because they yield a uniform standard of value, after applying generally-accepted valuation techniques, which allows meaningful comparison between businesses which are similarly situated.

 

Elements of business valuation

 

Economic conditions

 

A business valuation report generally begins with a description of national, regional and local economic conditions existing as of the valuation date, as well as the conditions of the industry in which the subject business operates. A common source of economic information for the first section of the business valuation report is the Federal Reserve Board’s Beige Book, published quarterly by the Federal Reserve Bank. State governments and industry associations often publish useful statistics describing regional and industry conditions.

 

Financial Analysis

 

The financial statement analysis generally involves common size analysis, ratio analysis (liquidity, turnover, profitability, etc.), trend analysis and industry comparative analysis. This permits the valuation analyst to compare the subject company to other businesses in the same or similar industry, and to discover trends affecting the company and/or the industry over time. By comparing a company’s financial statements in different time periods, the valuation expert can view growth or decline in revenues or expenses, changes in capital structure, or other financial trends. How the subject company compares to the industry will help with the risk assesment and ultimately help determine the discount rate and the selection of market multiples.

 

Normalization of financial statements

 

The most common normalization adjustments fall into the following four categories:

 

Comparability Adjustments. The valuator may adjust the subject company’s financial statements to facilitate a comparison between the subject company and other businesses in the same industry or geographic location. These adjustments are intended to eliminate differences between the way that published industry data is presented and the way that the subject company’s data is presented in its financial statements.

 

Non-operating Adjustments. It is reasonable to assume that if a business were sold in a hypothetical sales transaction (which is the underlying premise of the fair market value standard), the seller would retain any assets which were not related to the production of earnings or price those non-operating assets separately. For this reason, non-operating assets (such as excess cash) are usually eliminated from the balance sheet.

 

Non-recurring Adjustments. The subject company’s financial statements may be affected by events that are not expected to recur, such as the purchase or sale of assets, a lawsuit, or an unusually large revenue or expense. These non-recurring items are adjusted so that the financial statements will better reflect the management’s expectations of future performance.

 

Discretionary Adjustments. The owners of private companies may be paid at variance from the market level of compensation that similar executives in the industry might command. In order to determine fair market value, the owner’s compensation, benefits, perquisites and distributions must be adjusted to industry standards. Similarly, the rent paid by the subject business for the use of property owned by the company’s owners individually may be scrutinized.

 

Income, Asset and Market Approaches

 

Three different approaches are commonly used in business valuation: the income approach, the asset-based approach, and the market approach. Within each of these approaches, there are various techniques for determining the fair market value of a business. Generally, the income approaches determine value by calculating the net present value of the benefit stream generated by the business (discounted cash flow); the asset-based approaches determine value by adding the sum of the parts of the business (net asset value); and the market approaches determine value by comparing the subject company to other companies in the same industry, of the same size, and/or within the same region.

 

In determining which of these approaches to use, the valuation professional must exercise discretion. Each technique has advantages and drawbacks, which must be considered when applying those techniques to a particular subject company. Most treatises and court decisions encourage the valuator to consider more than one technique, which must be reconciled with each other to arrive at a value conclusion. A measure of common sense and a good grasp of mathematics is helpful.

 

Income approaches

 

The income approaches determine fair market value by multiplying the benefit stream generated by the subject company times a discount or capitalization rate. The discount or capitalization rate converts the stream of benefits into present value. There are several different income approaches, including capitalization of earnings or cash flows, discounted future cash flows (“DCF”), and the excess earnings method (which is a hybrid of asset and income approaches). Most of the income approaches consider the subject company’s historical financial data; only the DCF method requires the subject company to provide projected financial data. Most of the income approaches look to the company’s adjusted historical financial data for a single period; only DCF requires data for multiple future periods. The discount or capitalization rate must be matched to the type of benefit stream to which it is applied. The result of a value calculation under the income approach is generally the fair market value of a controlling, marketable interest in the subject company, since the entire benefit stream of the subject company is most often valued, and the capitalization and discount rates are derived from statistics concerning public companies.

 

Discount or capitalization rates

 

A discount or capitalization rate is used to determine the present value of the expected returns of a business. The discount rate and capitalization rate are closely related to each other, but distinguishable. Generally speaking, the discount rate or capitalization rate may be defined as

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